Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Seasonality of Silver Data 1984-2009

Bear with me here, as I can't import an Excel Spreadsheet directly.

All prices are The London Fix Silver/oz. in USD.
Open and Closing Dates are the First and Last trading days of each respective month.
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
May Open $8.93 $6.15 $5.11 $7.94 $6.36 $5.65 $4.95
May Close $9.12 $6.09 $5.20 $7.69 $6.60 $5.22 $5.07
Difference $0.19 ($0.06) $0.09 ($0.25) $0.24 ($0.43) $0.12
June Close $8.39 $6.11 $5.05 $7.14 $6.65 $5.17 $4.84
Difference ($0.73) $0.02 ($0.15) ($0.55) $0.05 ($0.05) ($0.23)
July Close $7.11 $6.34 $5.05 $8.32 $6.80 $5.15 $4.85
Difference ($1.28) $0.23 $0.00 $1.18 $0.15 ($0.02) $0.01
Aug Close $7.45 $6.25 $5.17 $7.55 $6.46 $5.07 $4.83
Difference $0.34 ($0.09) $0.12 ($0.77) ($0.34) ($0.08) ($0.02)
Sept Close $7.44 $6.05 $5.52 $7.64 $6.17 $5.28 $4.79
Difference ($0.01) ($0.20) $0.35 $0.09 ($0.29) $0.21 ($0.04)

Gain/Loss ($1.49) ($0.10) $0.41 ($0.30) ($0.19) ($0.37) ($0.16)
% -16.69% -1.63% 8.02% -3.78% -2.99% -6.55% -3.23%


1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
$3.97 $4.01 $4.27 $5.29 5.7 5.33 4.68
$4.13 $4.06 $4.71 $5.50 5.3 5.34 4.86
$0.16 $0.05 $0.44 $0.21 ($0.40) $0.01 $0.18
$4.45 $4.03 $4.48 5.25 5.33 5.03 4.72
$0.32 ($0.03) ($0.23) ($0.25) $0.03 ($0.31) ($0.14)
$4.06 $3.95 $5.30 $5.29 5.1 5.11 4.38
($0.39) ($0.08) $0.82 $0.04 ($0.23) $0.08 ($0.34)
$3.81 $3.72 $4.84 $5.36 5.32 5.2 4.73
($0.25) ($0.23) ($0.46) $0.07 $0.22 $0.09 $0.35
$4.13 $3.77 $4.03 $5.62 5.53 4.88 5.17
$0.32 $0.05 ($0.81) $0.26 $0.21 ($0.32) $0.44

$0.16 ($0.24) ($0.24) $0.33 ($0.17) ($0.45) $0.49
4.03% -5.99% -5.62% 6.24% -2.98% -8.44% 10.47%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
6.17 5.33 5.01 4.34 4.54 4.66 6.1
4.97 4.94 4.9 4.43 5.05 4.56 6.17
($1.20) ($0.39) ($0.11) $0.09 $0.51 ($0.10) $0.07
5.36 5.22 5.02 4.34 4.87 4.51 5.91
$0.39 $0.28 $0.12 ($0.09) ($0.18) ($0.05) ($0.26)
5.53 5.45 4.95 4.22 4.66 5.08 6.32
$0.17 $0.23 ($0.07) ($0.12) ($0.21) $0.57 $0.41
4.79 5.08 4.91 4.2 4.57 5.11 6.74
($0.74) ($0.37) ($0.04) ($0.02) ($0.09) $0.03 $0.42
5.39 5.58 4.89 4.59 4.53 5.12 6.67
$0.60 $0.50 ($0.02) $0.39 ($0.04) $0.01 ($0.07)

($0.78) $0.25 ($0.12) $0.25 ($0.01) $0.46 $0.57
-12.64% 4.69% -2.40% 5.76% -0.22% 9.87% 9.34%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
6.85 13.92 13.45 16.64 12.15
7.13 12.9 13.25 16.85 15.52
$0.28 ($1.02) ($0.20) $0.21 $3.37
7.1 10.7 12.54 17.65 13.94
($0.03) ($2.20) ($0.71) $0.80 ($1.58)
7.15 11.34 12.93 17.48 13.63
$0.05 $0.64 $0.39 ($0.17) ($0.31)
6.74 12.6 11.95 13.76 14.54
($0.41) $1.26 ($0.98) ($3.72) $0.91
7.53 11.55 13.65 12.96 16.45
$0.79 ($1.05) $1.70 ($0.80) $1.91

$0.68 ($2.37) $0.20 ($3.68) $4.30
9.93% -17.03% 1.49% -22.12% 35.39%

Average Loss: -7.49% Median: -5.62%
Average Overall: -0.27%
Average Gain: 9.57% Median: 8.02%

Since 2003: Average Loss: -19.57%
Average Gain: 13.20% Median: 9.87%

Average Overall: 3.84%
w/o 2008/09: 2.72%


Monthly Performance:
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
May %'s 2.13% -0.98% 1.76% -3.15% 3.77%
June %'s -8.00% 0.33% -2.88% -7.15% 0.76%
July %'s -15.26% 3.76% 0.00% 16.53% 2.26%
Aug %'s 4.78% -1.42% 2.38% -9.25% -5.00%
Sept. %'s -0.13% -3.20% 6.77% 1.19% -4.49%

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
-7.61% 2.42% 4.03% 1.25% 10.30% 3.97%
-0.96% -4.54% 7.75% -0.74% -4.88% -4.55%
-0.39% 0.21% -8.76% -1.99% 18.30% 0.76%
-1.55% -0.41% -6.16% -5.82% -8.68% 1.32%
4.14% -0.83% 8.40% 1.34% -16.74% 4.85%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
-7.02% 0.19% 3.85% -19.45% -7.32% -2.20%
0.57% -5.81% -2.88% 7.85% 5.67% 2.45%
-4.32% 1.59% -7.20% 3.17% 4.41% -1.39%
4.31% 1.76% 7.99% -13.38% -6.79% -0.81%
3.95% -6.15% 9.30% 12.53% 9.84% -0.41%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2.07% 11.23% -2.15% 1.15% 4.09% -7.33%
-2.03% -3.56% -1.10% -4.21% -0.42% -17.05%
-2.76% -4.31% 12.64% 6.94% 0.70% 5.98%
-0.47% -1.93% 0.59% 6.65% -5.73% 11.11%
9.29% -0.88% 0.20% -1.04% 11.72% -8.33%

2007 2008 2009
-1.49% 1.26% 27.74%
-5.36% 4.75% -10.18%
3.11% -0.96% -2.22%
-7.58% -21.28% 6.68%
14.23% -5.81% 13.14%

Average: May %'s 0.87%
June %'s -2.16%
July %'s 1.18%
Aug %'s -1.87%
Sept. %'s 2.42%


Since 2003: May %'s 3.32%
June %'s -4.80%
July %'s 3.74%
Aug %'s -1.37%
Sept. %'s 3.44%

Up Down
May 62% 38%
June 31% 69%
July 58% 42%
August 38% 62%
Sept 58% 42%

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